Key Message: This report details updated Manchester City model incorporating the latest Premier League/Champions League broadcasting revenue forecasts in addition to financial impacts from the January transfer window. 2025/26 season total revenue forecast is £15mm lower to £774mm (+12% y/y) driven entirely by downward revision to UEFA Champions League revenue forecast (now £94mm vs. £109mm prior). Latest Champions League revenue forecast (see here) has City reaching the quarter-finals (vs. semi-finals in prior model). Profitability metrics are also lower (EBITDA forecast down -£22mm to £138mm/18% margin, Operating Income down -£22mm to -£98mm/-13% margin) driven by 1) 100% flow through of lower TV revenue, and 2) effects of January transfer window activity on player wages/amortization. Net effects of player sales (Oscar Bobb, Stefan Ortega, Justin Oboavwoduo, Mahamadou Susoho), player purchases (Antoine Semenyo, Marc Guehi), and new contracts (Savinho) is 1) staff costs (i.e., wages) £7mm higher to £429mm (+5% y/y), 2) amortization unchanged at £220mm (+30% y/y), and 3) total profit on player sales of £123mm for the 2025/26 season (prior model just had summer 2025 transfer window profit). Manchester City remains in good financial position following two consecutive seasons of underwhelming top-line performance (+0% in 2023/24, -3% in 2024/25). Based on updated revenue forecast, equity valuation is slightly lower at £5.2bn vs. £5.3bn prior (using 7.0x EV/Sales multiple). Full overview of initial January 11 forecast can be found here.
Estimate Revisions
Drivers of Revisions to 2025/26 Season Forecast
- Broadcasting Revenue: -£15mm lower based on downward revision to UEFA Champions League revenue forecast
- Profit/(Loss) on Player Sales: now £123mm profit factoring in January sales of Oscar Bobb, Stefan Ortega, Justin Oboavwoduo, Mahamadou Susoho
- Player Sales Cash Inflow: £17mm higher factoring in January sales
- Oscar Bobb and Stefan Ortega sales are £4mm benefit to wages
- No benefit to player amortization as Oscar Bobb was a former academy player and Stefan Ortega was signed on a free transfer (both result in no amortization)
- Academy player sales (Justin Oboavwoduo, Mahamadou Susoho) assumed immaterial to wages/amortization
- Player Sales Cash Outflow: £7mm higher driven by purchases of Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guehi
- £11mm impact to 2025/26 wages (£22mm next year once wages are for a full year)
- £8mm impact to amortization in 2025/26 (£15mm next year once amortization stretches over a full year)
- New Contracts: 2025/26 amortization slightly softened by new Savinho contract (£2mm less amortization per year vs. prior contract)
- Free Cash Flow: -£12mm lower as downward revenue revision and player purchases more than offset cash inflow from player sales
- Gross UEFA Debt: £13mm higher driven by player purchases
Note that initial forecast on January 11th already incorporated the Antoine Semenyo signing
Summary Model
Revenue
For the 2025/26 season total revenue is forecasted to be £774mm (+12% y/y) with gains primarily led by Commercial (+20%) followed by Matchday (+7%) and Broadcasting (+2%). Manchester City remains in good financial position following two consecutive seasons of underwhelming top-line performance (+0% in 2023/24, -3% in 2024/25). Broadcasting revenue had a £38mm tailwind from participation in the summer 2025 Club World Cup. All earnings from this competition are estimated to have been included in the 2024/25 financial year given Manchester City’s final game was June 30. Absent benefit from the Club World Cup, 2024/25 Broadcasting revenue would have declined 18% y/y (vs. -5% with benefit).
Broadcast Revenue
Based on current standing for a second place EPL finish, EPL Broadcast revenue is expected to come in at £177mm for the 2025/26 season (+7% y/y following third place finish in the 2024/25 season).
Odds for the UEFA Champions League currently value Manchester City as the fifth most likely to win the competition. For modeling purposes pre-completion of the knockout stage, fifth highest odds to win are assumed to be equivalent to finishing in the quarter-finals stage of the competition. A quarter-finals finish is expected to garner Manchester City UEFA revenue of £94mm for the 2025/26 season (+33% y/y following knockout stage playoffs exit in 2024/25). See latest Champions League forecast here.
Additionally, £14mm contribution from domestic cup competitions is modeled.
Commercial Revenue
Commercial revenue growth is forecasted to significantly accelerate to +20% in the 2025/26 season (vs. -1% decline in 2024/25) driven by reported renewals with both Puma and Emirates.
Matchday Revenue
Matchday revenue should benefit from a deeper run in the Champions League relative to the 2024/25 season. Current model has matchday revenue of £80mm for the 2025/26 season (+7%) vs. £75mm in the 2024/25 season (-1% y/y).
Player Transfers
Manchester City is forecasted to see profit on disposal of player registrations of £123mm for the 2026/26 season driven by £92mm gain on summer 2025 sales and £30mm gain on January 2026 sales. The £123mm gain compares to £95mm profit in the 2024/25 season and £109mm average from 2021/22 through 2023/24.
From a cash outflow perspective, Manchester City has recorded gross transfer spend of £262mm across the summer 2025 and winter 2026 transfer windows. Note that because Manchester City has a financial year end of June 30, any signings or sales made prior to July are included in the 2024/25 season results. Therefore, of this £262mm gross transfer spend, £151mm will be included in the 2025/26 financial year with the remainder in 2024/25. Summer 2025 signings included in the 2024/25 financial year are distinguished by “Pre-July” in the table below.
Note: Manchester City does not officially report a cash flow statement. All cash flow figures cited in this report are calculated using press reports and reported balance sheet data that includes transfer payables and transfer receivables. Cash flow estimates are optimized to minimize variance between bottoms up transfer payables/receivables estimates and reported figures. Player transfer related cash flow estimates go back to the 2022/23 season for Manchester City (vs. 2021/22 season for all other Big Six Clubs)..
Because cash payments/receipts for player purchases/sales are typically paid/received through installment plans over multiple seasons, cash outflow/inflow amounts differ from gross transfer spend/income each season. Manchester City is forecasted to have total cash outflow of £219mm for the 2025/26 season.
To calculate cash outflow for the first (and only) forecast year (2025/26 in the case of Manchester City), the prior season’s reported, current transfer payables is taken and added to an estimated % of gross transfer spend paid (in cash) for the 2025/26 season (for forecast years, this % is aligned with historical trend). To calculate gross transfer spend in the forecast years, all press reported values for transfers in each season are summed together. A full guide to transfer cash flow and debt forecasting can be found here.
The £219mm cash outflow estimate for the 2025/26 season includes £170mm of current transfer payables reported at the end of the 2024/25 season and 33% (£50mm) of estimated gross transfer spend for the 2025/26 season.
From a cash inflow perspective, Manchester City is estimated to have gross transfer income of £98mm in the 2025 summer window and £30mm in the 2026 January window. Due to effect of installment payments, total cash inflow from player sales is expected to be £132mm in the 2025/26 season. Forecasting for transfer cash inflow follows the same methodology as transfer cash outflows. No major sales occurred prior to June 30 and thus all summer 2025 transactions are included in the 2025/26 financial year.
To calculate cash inflow for the first (and only) forecast year, the prior season’s reported, current transfer receivables are taken and added to an estimated % of gross transfer income received (in cash) for the 2025/26 season (this % is aligned with historical trend for forecast years). To calculate gross transfer income in the forecast years, all press reported values for transfers in each season are summed together.
The £132mm cash inflow estimate for the 2025/26 season includes £61mm of current transfer receivables reported at the end of the 2024/25 season and 55% (£71mm) of estimated gross transfer income for the 2025/26 season.
Full transfer cash outflow and inflow summary is provided in the tables below. Note that the 2027E forecasting year is used solely for calculating current transfer payable/receivable amounts for the 2026E financial year.
Expenses
Expense growth is expected to accelerate in the 2025/26 season (+10% vs. +1% in the 2024/25 season) primarily driven by new player signings with Staff Costs +5% y/y and Amortization of Registrations +30% y/y.
Profitability
Current model shows strong EBITDA growth in the 2025/26 season with operating income continuing to run negative and net income seeing slight improvement. Net income gets the benefit of profit from player sales.
EBITDA
EBITDA margin is expected to expand in the 2025/26 season to 18% (vs. 13% in the 2024/25 season). Following a disappointing 2024/25 season from a Broadcasting revenue perspective, 2025/26 EBITDA margin is in-line with 2021/22 through 2023/24 average margin of 18%.
Free Cash Flow
Expect Free Cash Flow to slightly decline in the 2025/26 season to -£13mm following £21mm estimated inflow in the 2024/25 season. As mentioned previously, Manchester City does not officially report a cash flow statement. All cash flow figures cited in this report are calculated using press reports and reported balance sheet data.
Debt
Current model has gross financial debt at £71mm in the 2025/26 season (largely consistent with most recently reported figure of £70mm in the 2024/25 season). Gross UEFA debt is expected to decrease from £493mm in the 2024/25 season to £426mm in 2025/26 driven by relatively lower volume transfer activity. Note that Financial Debt includes traditional debt instruments such as owner debt and external loans. UEFA debt adds transfer debt on top of the financial debt figure.
Valuation
Based on current revenue forecast of £774mm in the 2025/26 season, Manchester City equity is valued at £5.2bn using a 7.0x EV/Sales multiple (above with ~6.0x “Big Six” average per Sportico and Forbes). A premium multiple relative to the peer group is used given Manchester City’s continued success at the upper echelon of English and European competitions in recent seasons, and subsequent impact on revenue growth. Note that despite using a higher multiple for Manchester United (8.0x), Manchester City’s valuation is ~£1.0bn higher. Manchester City also benefits from lowest debt balance amongst the Big Six.
Disclaimer
This report discusses valuation of Manchester City Football Club for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions should be made at one’s own risk and/or with the advice of an investment professional.
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