Arsenal reported 2024/25 financial results this past Wednesday (link) with both top and bottom line slightly underperforming FootyFinance expectations. Revenue of £691mm (+12% y/y, vs. £725mm expected) was primarily driven by Commercial (+21%) and Matchday (+17%) growth, with modest gain at Broadcasting (+4%). Operating expenses of £754mm (+13%) came in ahead of expectations driving lower than expected profitability. Cash flow related to player trading activities including £201mm outflow for player purchases and £58mm inflow for player sales was largely in-line with estimates. Book profit on player sales was £81mm (vs. £71mm expected).
2025/26 season total revenue forecast is now £757mm (vs. £775mm prior) driven by downward revision at Commercial and Matchday segments (Broadcasting unchanged). Operating expense outlook is higher at £830mm (vs. £769mm prior). Estimates regarding player trading activities are largely unchanged with cash outflow for player purchases of £247mm, cash inflow from player sales of £44mm, and book loss on player sales of -£2mm. Full 2024/25 financial results review table and 2025/26 season estimates revision table are provided below.
Valuation is now £4.0bn (vs. £4.3bn prior) based on a 6.0x EV/Sales multiple impacted by lower top line outlook.
2024/25 Financial Results Review Table
2025/26 Season Estimate Revisions
Summary Model
Revenue
For the 2025/26 season total revenue is forecasted to be £757mm (+10% y/y) with gains primarily led by Broadcasting (+15%) followed by Commercial (+5%) and Matchday (+5%). Bottom line: sustained on field success for Arsenal continues to drive topline growth across all segments despite tough growth comparisons vs. recent seasons (+12% total revenue growth for the 2024/25 season, +32% for the 2023/24 season).
Broadcasting Revenue
Based on current standing for a first place EPL finish, EPL Broadcast revenue is expected to come in at £181mm for the 2025/26 season (+5% y/y following second place finish in the 2024/25 season).
Odds for the UEFA Champions League currently value Arsenal as the most likely to win the competition. For modeling purposes pre-completion of the knockout stage, highest odds to win are assumed as equivalent to winning the competition. Winning the Champions League is expected to garner Arsenal UEFA revenue of £127mm for the 2025/26 season (+25% y/y following Champions League semi-final exit in 2024/25). See latest Champions League forecast here.
Commercial Revenue
Arsenal’s Commercial revenue growth is forecasted to decelerate to +5% in the 2025/26 season (vs. +21% in 2024/25) as the club laps Emirates sponsorship renewal in the 2024/25 season.
Matchday Revenue
Arsenal’s 2025/26 season Matchday revenue is expected to benefit from a deep run in the Champions League similar to the 2024/25 season. Matchday revenue of £162mm is forecasted for the 2025/26 season (+5% y/y vs. £154mm in the 2024/25 season).
Player Transfers
Arsenal is forecasted to see a loss on disposal of player registrations of -£2mm for the 2026/26 season driven by primarily loss on sale of Oleksandr Zinchenko in the January window, partially offset by £1mm gain on summer 2025 sales. The -£2mm loss compares to £81mm profit for the 2024/25 season and £28mm reported average from 2021/22 through 2023/24.
From a cash outflow perspective, Arsenal is estimated to have gross transfer spend of £242mm in the 2025 summer window and £1mm in the January 2026 window (£243mm total for the 2025/26 season). Note that because cash payments/receipts for player purchases/sales are typically paid/received through installment plans over multiple seasons, cash outflow/inflow amounts differ from gross transfer spend/income each season. Arsenal is forecasted to have total cash outflow of £247mm for the 2025/26 season.
To calculate cash outflow for the first (and only) forecast year (2025/26 in the case of Arsenal), the prior season’s reported, current transfer payables are taken and added to an estimated % of gross transfer spend paid (in cash) for the 2025/26 season (for forecast years, this % is aligned with historical trend). To calculate gross transfer spend in the forecast years, all press reported values for transfers in each season are summed together. A full guide to transfer cash flow and debt forecasting can be found here.
The £247mm cash outflow estimate for the 2025/26 season includes £138mm of current transfer payables reported at the end of the 2024/25 season and 45% (£109mm) of estimated gross transfer spend for the 2025/26 season.
From a cash inflow perspective, Arsenal is estimated to have gross transfer income of £10mm in the 2025 summer window and £1mm in the 2026 January window. Due to effect of installment payments, total cash inflow from player sales is expected to be £44mm in the 2025/26 season. Forecasting for transfer cash inflow follows the same methodology as transfer cash outflows.
To calculate cash inflow for the first (and only) forecast year, the prior season’s reported, current transfer receivables are taken and added to an estimated % of gross transfer income received (in cash) for the 2025/26 season (this % is aligned with historical trend for forecast years). To calculate gross transfer income in the forecast years, all press reported values for transfers in each season are summed together.
The £44mm cash inflow estimate for the 2025/26 season includes £38mm of current transfer receivables reported at the end of the 2024/25 season and 50% (£6mm) of estimated gross transfer income for the 2025/26 season.
Full transfer cash outflow and inflow summaries are provided in the tables below. Note that the 2027 forecasting year is used solely for calculating current transfer payable/receivable amounts for the 2026 financial year.
Expenses
Expense growth is expected to slightly decelerate in the 2025/26 season (+10% vs. +13% in the 2024/25 season) primarily driven by new player signings with Amortization (primarily relating to player registrations) +27% and Staff Costs +5%.
Profitability
EBITDA is expected to improve in the 2025/26 season, though operating income and net income are forecasted to decline y/y. Lower operating income is primarily driven by expense growth in-line with revenue growth, while net income is further affected by significantly lower player sale profit vs. the 2024/25 season.
EBITDA
EBITDA margin is expected to modestly expand in the 2025/26 season to 24% (vs. 21% in the 2024/25 season). 2025/26 margin is in-line with 2021/22 through 2023/24 average margin of 24%.
Free Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow is expected to slightly decline in the 2025/26 season to -£18mm (vs. -£14mm in 2024/25 and -£20mm average for the 2021/22 through 2023/24 seasons).
Debt
Gross financial debt balance is expected to come in at £399mm for the 2025/26 season (up from £358mm in the 2024/25 season). Gross UEFA debt is expected to increase to £606mm (vs. £569mm in 2024/25) driven by higher volume summer 2025 transfer window relative to prior year. Note that Financial Debt includes traditional debt instruments such as owner debt and external loans. UEFA debt adds transfer debt on top of the financial debt figure.
Valuation
Based on current revenue forecast of £757mm for the 2025/26 season, Arsenal equity is valued at £4.0bn using a 6.0x EV/Sales multiple (in-line with Big Six average per third-party valuations from Forbes, Sportico, and CNBC). Decline compared to prior valuation of £4.3mm is driven by 2% reduction in 2025/26 season total revenue estimate vs. prior model. While Arsenal has consistently challenged for domestic and European titles in recent years, the club’s multiple represents a discount to Liverpool and Manchester City, who have been perennial winners over the past decade. Should Arsenal see similar sustained success in the back-half of this decade, then a higher multiple will be justified particularly given the club’s strong revenue growth profile (highest average among Big Six in past five years).
Disclaimer
This report discusses valuation of Arsenal Football Club for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions should be made at one’s own risk and/or with the advice of an investment professional.
This report presents a view only as of the date of this communication and any opinions, estimates, and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication. The information contained may be subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice or become incorrect due to passage of time and/or as a result of legal, political, economic, and other changes. FootyFinance does not assume responsibility to notify you of such changes and/or furnish an updated report. FootyFinance does not assume responsibility for results from this model.
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