Key Message: Under manager Mikel Arteta, Arsenal has once again become a perennial title contender. I expect this momentum on the field to translate into further financial success off the field. Per my forecast, Arsenal is on track to achieve the third highest revenue in the English Premier League for the 2025/26 season with £771mm (+6% y/y) underpinning my equity valuation of £4.3bn (based on 6.0x EV/Sales multiple). Within, I further detail my initial 2025/26 financial forecast for Arsenal across all key KPIs (in addition to estimates for the not yet reported 2024/25 season). I plan to update estimates on a regular basis as the season progresses.
Revenue
For the 2025/26 season I forecast total revenue of £771mm (+6% y/y) with gains primarily led by Broadcasting (+12%) followed by Commercial (+4%) and Matchday (+1%). Bottom line: sustained on field success for Arsenal continues to drive topline growth across all segments despite tough growth comparisons vs. recent seasons (+17% total revenue growth estimated for the 2024/25 season, +32% reported for the 2023/24 season).
Broadcast Revenue
Based on current standing for a first place finish in the EPL, I forecast £181mm of EPL Broadcast revenue for the 2025/26 season (+5% y/y following second place finish in the 2024/25 season).
Odds for the UEFA Champions League currently value Arsenal as the most likely to win the competition. For purposes of my model pre-completion of the knockout stage, I assume highest odds to win as equivalent to winning the competition. I estimate winning the Champions League garners Arsenal UEFA revenue of £125mm for the 2025/26 season (+23% y/y following Champions League semi-final exit in 2024/25).
Additionally, I model modest contribution of £6mm in revenue from the EFL Cup and FA Cup for the 2025/26 season.
Commercial Revenue
I expect Arsenal’s Commercial revenue growth to decelerate to +4% in the 2025/26 season (vs. +26% in 2024/25) as the club laps renewal of the Emirates sponsorship in the 2024/25 season.
Matchday Revenue
For Matchday revenue, I expect Arsenal to benefit from a deep run in the Champions League similar to the 2024/25 season. I currently model matchday revenue of £169mm for the 2025/26 season (+1% y/y vs. £166mm in the 2024/25 season).
Full revenue summary provided in the table below.
Player Transfers
I currently model profit on disposal of player registrations of £1mm for the 2026/26 season driven by a relatively light summer window. This £1mm profit compares to an estimated £71mm profit for the 2024/25 season and £28mm reported average from 2021/22 through 2023/24. Note that 2025/26 season estimates do not factor in potential winter transfers (assumed £0mm profit until window closes).
From a cash outflow perspective, I estimate gross transfer spend of £242mm in the 2025 summer window with cash outflow of £242mm for the 2025/26 season. Note that because cash payments/receipts for player purchases/sales are typically paid/received through installment plans over multiple seasons, cash outflow/inflow amounts differ from gross transfer spend/income each season.
To calculate cash outflow for the first forecast year (2024/25 in the case of Arsenal), I take the prior season’s reported, current transfer payables and add that amount to an estimated % of gross transfer spend paid (in cash) for the 2024/25 season (for forecast years, I align this % with historical trend). To calculate gross transfer spend in the forecast years, I sum up all press reported values for transfers in each season.
To calculate cash outflow for the second forecast year (2025/26 in the case of Arsenal), I assume a three-year installment plan for transfer payments given there is not a current transfer payable amount reported yet for the 2024/25 season. Year one transfer cash payments reflect 45% of 2025/26 season gross transfer spend; year two payments reflect 30% of 2024/25 season gross transfer spend; and year three payments reflect the non-current portion of 2023/24 transfer payables (current portion will be paid in the 2024/25 season with remainder assumed to be paid ~three seasons later in 2025/26). A full guide to transfer cash flow and debt forecasting methodology can be found here.
The £242mm cash outflow estimate for the 2025/26 season includes £109mm related to 2025/26 transfers, £29mm for 2024/25 transfers, and £104mm for 2023/24 transfers. Like player sale profit, I do not forecast potential winter transfer spend due to significant variability between periods.
From a cash inflow perspective, I estimate gross transfer income of £10mm in the 2025 summer window with cash inflow of £45mm expected for the 2025/26 season. Forecasting for transfer cash inflow follows the same methodology as transfer cash outflows.
To calculate cash inflow for the first forecast year, I take the prior season’s reported, current transfer receivables and add that amount to an estimated % of gross transfer income received (in cash) for the 2024/25 season (I align this % with historical trend for forecast years). To calculate gross transfer income in the forecast years, I sum up all press reported values for transfers in each season.
To calculate cash inflow for the second forecast year, I assume a three-year installment plan for transfer sales given there is not a current transfer receivable amount reported yet for the 2024/25 season. Year one transfer cash inflow reflects 50% of 2025/26 season gross transfer income; year two proceeds reflect 30% of 2024/25 season gross transfer income; and year three payments reflect the non-current portion of 2023/24 transfer receivables (current portion will be received in the 2024/25 season with remainder assumed to be received ~three seasons later in 2025/26).
The £45mm cash inflow estimate for the 2025/26 season includes £5mm related to 2025/26 transfer sales, £24mm from 2024/25 transfers, and £17mm from 2023/24 transfers.
Full transfer cash outflow and inflow summary is provided in the tables below. Note that the 2027E forecasting year is used solely for calculating current transfer payable/receivable amounts for the 2026E financial year.
Expenses
I expect Arsenal’s expense growth to accelerate in the 2025/26 season (+11% vs. estimated +5% in the 2024/25 season) primarily driven by new player signings with Staff Costs +4% y/y and Amortization of Registrations +27% y/y.
Profitability
I forecast strong EBITDA growth for Arsenal in the 2025/26 season, though expect operating income and net income to decline y/y. Lower operating income levels are primarily driven by expense growth outpacing revenue growth with net income further affected by significantly lower player sale profit vs. the 2024/25 season. I primarily focus on EBITDA as the key profitability metric.
EBITDA
I expect EBITDA margin to modestly expand in the 2025/26 season to 34% (vs. 32% estimate in the 2024/25 season). Compared to average EBITDA margin of 24% for the 2021/22 through 2023/24 seasons, Arsenal continues to show strong profitability improvement.
Free Cash Flow
I expect Free Cash Flow (FCF) to slightly decline in the 2025/26 season, though still remain positive. My current forecast shows Arsenal as the only “Big Six” club to have positive Free Cash Flow for the 2025/26 season.
Debt
I forecast gross financial debt of £432mm for the 2025/26 season (up from most recently reported figure of £342mm in the 2023/24 season). I expect UEFA debt to increase from an estimated £540mm in the 2024/25 season to £589mm in 2025/26 driven by higher volume 2025 summer transfer window. 2025/26 UEFA debt, however, is down from most recently reported figure of £610mm following the 2023/24 season. Note that Financial Debt includes traditional debt instruments such as owner debt and external loans. UEFA debt adds transfer debt on top of the financial debt figure.
Valuation
Based on my current revenue forecast of £771mm for the 2025/26 season, I value Arsenal equity at £4.3bn using a 6.0x EV/Sales multiple (in-line with Big Six average per third-party valuations from Forbes, Sportico, and CNBC). While Arsenal has consistently challenged for domestic and European titles in recent years, I believe the club’s multiple should represent a discount to Liverpool and Manchester City, who have been perennial winners over the past decade. Should Arsenal see similar sustained success in the back-half of this decade, then I believe a higher multiple will be justified particularly given the club’s strong revenue growth profile (highest average among Big Six in past five years).
Summary Model
Full summary model detailed in the table below. I plan to make full excel access available at a later date.
Disclaimer
This report discusses valuation of Arsenal Football Club for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All investment decisions should be made at one’s own risk and/or with the advice of an investment professional.
This report presents a view only as of the date of this communication and any opinions, estimates, and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication. The information contained may be subject to change and/or withdrawal without notice or become incorrect due to passage of time and/or as a result of legal, political, economic, and other changes. FootyFinance does not assume responsibility to notify you of such changes and/or furnish an updated report. FootyFinance does not assume responsibility for results from this model.
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